Yellowstone National Park sits upon a giant caldera of a super volcano. Scientists have determined that it has erupted 3 times in the past.
The U.S. Geological Survey has released the following FAQ list concerning the prediction of the next eruption.
Is it true that the next caldera-forming eruption of Yellowstone is overdue?
No. First of all, one cannot present recurrence intervals based on only two values. It would be statistically meaningless. But for those who insist… let’s do the arithmetic. The three eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 0.64 million years ago. The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval. Again, the last eruption was 0.64 million years ago, implying that we are still about 90,000 years away from the time when we might consider calling Yellowstone overdue for another caldera-forming eruption. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the possibility of another such eruption occurring some time in the future, given Yellowstone’s volcanic history and the continued presence of magma beneath the Yellowstone caldera.
When will Yellowstone erupt again?
We do not know. Future volcanic eruptions could occur within or near Yellowstone National Park for the simple reason that the area has a long volcanic history and because there is hot and molten rock, or magma, beneath the caldera now. Yellowstone is monitored for signs of volcanic activity by YVO scientists who detect earthquakes using seismographs and ground motion using GPS (Global Positioning System). YVO has not detected signs of activity that suggest an eruption is imminent.
The crust of North America continuously moves southwest over the Yellowstone hotspot as the Earth’s crust stretches above it, promoting the ascent of heat and molten rock. These processes produce basaltic magmas within the Earth’s mantle, which rise into the overlying crust and continue to heat the rocks beneath Yellowstone, maintaining and possibly adding to the rhyolite magma in the crust above.
Yellowstone’s 2-million-year history of volcanism, the copious amount of heat that still flows from the ground, the frequent earthquakes, and the repeated uplift and subsidence of the caldera floor also testify to the continuity of magmatic processes beneath Yellowstone and point to the possibility of future volcanism and earthquake activity.
What type of eruption will occur if Yellowstone erupts again?
Yellowstone’s volcanic and hydrothermal history suggests the potential for various kinds of eruptions in the future. The likelihood of a certain type of eruption occurring in the future can be judged by how often eruptions have occurred in the past.
- The most likely type of eruption would not be volcanic but, rather, hydrothermal. This type of small, but still explosive eruption can occur from shallow reservoirs of steam or hot water rather than molten rock. These reservoirs are the sources of Yellowstone’s famous geysers, hot springs, and fumaroles. Such explosions could blast out shallow craters more than a kilometer wide; as has occurred in the northern Yellowstone Lake Basin, including Mary Bay and nearby Turbid Lake and Indian Pond, and in western Yellowstone National Park north of Old Faithful. Each of these craters was produced by steam blasts within the past few thousand years.
- The most likely type of volcanic eruption at Yellowstone would produce lava flows of either rhyolite or basalt; rhyolitic lava eruptions could also include explosive phases that might produce significant volumes of volcanic ash and pumice. Such eruptions could range in size from smaller than the 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens through much larger than the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption.
- The least likely but worst-case volcanic eruption at Yellowstone would be another explosive caldera-forming eruption such as those that occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and 640,000 years ago. However, the probability of such an eruption in any given century or millennium is exceedingly low- much lower than the smaller eruptions mentioned above.
When will the next large earthquake occur in Yellowstone?
Earthquakes cannot be predicted yet, but modern surveillance conducted with seismographs (instruments that measure earthquake locations and magnitudes) and Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments that measure slow ground movements help scientists understand the state of stress in the Earth’s crust that could trigger earthquakes as well as magma movement.
Could a large Yellowstone eruption significantly change weather patterns?
If another catastrophic caldera-forming Yellowstone eruption were to occur, it quite likely would alter global weather patterns and have enormous effects on human activity, especially agricultural production, for many years. In fact, the relatively small 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines was shown to have temporarily, yet measurably, changed global temperatures. Scientists, however, at this time do not have the predictive ability to determine specific consequences or durations of possible global impacts from such large eruptions.
Can you release some of the pressure at Yellowstone by drilling into the volcano?
Scientists agree that drilling into a volcano would be of questionable usefulness. Notwithstanding the enormous expense and technological difficulties in drilling through hot, mushy rock, drilling is unlikely to have much effect. At near magmatic temperatures and pressures, any hole would rapidly become sealed by minerals crystallizing from the natural fluids that are present at those depths.
So, when will the next eruption occur? Nobody can predict. The threat, however, should not keep visitors away.
In the bookstore: Yellowstone Volcano (books)
On the web: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
March 26th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
yellowstone is giving me the creeps and i it im worried that when will it erupt .
im always looking on the sci-fi on the bbc index on sky every day and i think theres either going to be a meteorite coming to the earth or yellowstone and i want an answer back saying that what will be the effect on the volcanoes activity when will it go off . im so interested in it
April 23rd, 2008 at 2:53 pm
i am scared
April 26th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Yellowstone is REALLY giving me the creeps too. I am scared. I actually bought some gas masks. (ok not just for Yellowstone but for terrorist stuff. Better to be prepared than not). I want to move to Colorado Springs but I am scared to now. LOL
September 21st, 2008 at 6:52 pm
People world wide have the same feeling that some kind of mega disaster will happen soon if Yellowstone wakes up the whole world will be effected.
November 1st, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Ok well, I was watching a show about it last night and the scientist said they thought it could erupt tomorrow or in 100,000. So I wouldn’t be to worried. P.S: If it does erupt I think Africa and Australia will not be badly effected. That is life, Ce’st la vie, Ult Esta Vita.
November 8th, 2008 at 2:51 am
december 21st 2012? boom goes yellowstone?
December 12th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
OMG! I am soooooo scared! I wonder if Yellowstone will erupt in our time. I talked to my Grandfather about this and he says that Yellowstone Volcano erupting in our life time is very small chance. That should all make us feel a little better. But I doubt that it will explode when we are dead. I think it will blow when we are alive. Yellowstone is over due to erupt! This is a ticking time bomb because scientists don’t know for sure when it is going to blow. Thats the scary part! I live in Idaho. All though there is a very teeny tiny part of Yellowstone National Park, the lava will not reach where I live. Only the ash. As you all probally know ash can kill you. Or at least thats what I’ve heard. The eruption of Yellowstone will efect the world badly because of all the ash. I think everyone is scared about the explotion of Yellowstone.
December 27th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
uh….. Where did you get those gas masks again?
December 30th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Gas masks? They would probably melt off of your face. Anywhoo I am not worried about yellowstone, the world is set to end May 24,2012 2 days after my birthday lol.
December 30th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Living in fear of a possible eruption of the magnitude Yellowstone is capable of only leads to anxiety. If it’s going to happen, chances are many will perish. However, my thoughts are to live prepared (food storage, emergency kits, gas masks;-), etc.) and go on with life. Our time here is too short to jeopardize our happiness because of a possible catastophic event.
Thanks for all the great comments.
December 31st, 2008 at 6:24 pm
you know… the world is set to have its doomsday on the 21 december 2012.. do you think this is it? i doubt that it will erupt but still.. i see tehse programs on the tele and they creep me out a little… all these things that could kill mankind. any of you seen the film doomsday? that could happen.. major virus kills us all… any of you seen day after tomorrow.. major weather change.. i am going to give this issue some major thought soon!!!
January 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 pm
I think there are many things out there that could do some major damage to mankind. Some things you can prepare for, some you can’t. They only think you do have control over is being mentally and physically ready for what comes our way.
As for something happening on 12-21-2012, I think it’s possible, whatever it may be. I think there was a lot of knowledge that was lost with our ancient cultures. What I do feel will happen though is the History and Discovery channel is going to run so many 2012 disaster shows, people are going to start to go a little nuts as we get closer to the date.. so prepare now I say if you are going to prepare at all.
January 4th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Help Me! I’m Melting…
January 6th, 2009 at 9:49 am
Every time there’s a doomsday date people fall for it. Then theres a new date set. The person who does this just wants to set fear in people. The time and day of our death/end is unpredictable and everyday we risk getting killed. December 21, 2012 is just the end of the mayan calendar, then their new calendar ends October 13,4772. There’s nothing to be worried about, just be prepared for any disaster and don’t live in constant fear.
January 7th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
With all of the facts about these types of valcanos being in the geological record, it seems that a future eruption is plausible, and possibly, a reallity staring us in the face!
We as a race have the intelligence to save our place hear on earth, after all the previous erruptions have already given us the knowledge needed to protect ourselves, and emerge from the choas alive, and well, and possibly advanced in science. It will all be determined at the time of such an event, how ? The level of preparing we do prior to catastrphy, determines how well we survive.
A well planned fire drill has it purpose, as does planning, and building a protective community, designed to sustain life, as well as allowing for research, and development of the new life items needed after emergance is acceptable.
Do not fear ctastrophy….Plan on it, and you will prepare out of the will to survive !
January 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Goes without saying that living on this planet during a catastrophic eruption of Yellowstone would be a major bummer…But really; whether you get burned to death by lava, starve to death because the dust cloud blocks out the sun and destroys all the agriculture or…
You just get run over by a bus.
You’re just as dead.
January 8th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
wow i wonder what would happen if it blows up !!!!!
January 8th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
when yellow stone erups we will be coverd in dust and imagine all the people that haved died in that erupion and wwill be coverd in there dust ewwwww but once again thats sad and all the little animals i love!!!!!!!!
January 8th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
If yellowstone does erupt in our lifetimes only places about 500 miles away would get covered in ash. It would only effect the midwest, but with todays science we would be able to predict it before it happens. So that would give us a chance to evacuate, sure there will be some casualties but nothing that bad. And all this nonsence about 12-21-2012
all of it is bull
January 9th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
If Yellowstone erupts.If the caldera is emptied the closer to Yellowstone you are the better off you will be. It will more than likely kill 75% of all people on earth.Starvation will be the way most people will die.The eruption will be so bad the sun won’t shine for 2 years worldwide no one is safe,unless you can breath saltwater you might survive.For the people who don’t starve and are underground.The world they surface to will be like landing on mars.I live in Cheyenne which is 300+ miles from Yellowstone.I would be killed as soon as the blast wave hit anyone in a 600 mile circle will die.Anyone in a 1000 mile circle will die in a few days from ash.The rest of the world will starve, were talking drinking water going for $800 an ounce. So don’t worry about Yellowstone because it would be the end of us all.
January 12th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
i live in wisconsin, if yellowstone did go off, about how much time would i have to evacuate? would the great lakes help in anyway? should i run south, north, or east?
January 13th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
interesting article, i live in canada do you think it will hit us? who knows we’ll just have to wait and see… youclash.com
January 15th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
i know that it wont hurt us here in the east i live in florida so we will have only a little ash. but if it is more than we expected we r all doom and u know what i am moving to australia bye!!
January 18th, 2009 at 6:18 pm
Well, they are saying that if it goes, it`ll be about 1000 times more powerful than Mount St Helen was, meaning that it`ll effect most of the US and much of Canada and Mexico. It will also basically destroy crops across the US, meaning a global shortage of food. Further, it would put so much junk in the air that the sun would be blocked for a very very long period. I have heard up to several years of winter would be likely.
January 19th, 2009 at 8:13 am
hi there will yellowstone if it blows up half the usa effect those living the other side off the pond
January 19th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Man, can’t anyone read!!! Did any of you read the Q&A at the top of this sensible website written by a level headed geologist involved with studying the caldera? The chances of this volcano blowing in our great, great grandchildren’s life time is extremely remote at best. And as far as you believers in Nostradamus and the ancient Mayans having some mistical ancient method of predicting the future, total and absolute nonsense. Does anyone ever ask themselves if all these predictions have any creditability why can’t we stop these events before they happen? I’ll tell you why, because these ancient writings are so vague that you can fit them into hundreds of events in history since they have been written. Unless we blow ourselves up the chances of this volcano going off or the earth being hit by a giant asteroid in this century is very unlikely. If you want something to truly worry about, worry about global warming because that will truly effect your children and grand children.
January 19th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
It is scary to think about but think about our chances they are very slim. So go have fun, dont be scared of a stupid little therory. people always have pridicted the end of the world has it happened? nope.
January 31st, 2009 at 11:04 am
I watched a film about Yellowstone and it REALLY scared me. BUT…….. let’s get things in perspective, my neighbour has just passed away from cancer, I think if we worry about events like this we will all have an early grave. STOP worrying, we are only here once and for a short time. We should be more concerned with everyday occurrences that we know WILL happen……….:( cheer up, time is ticking
January 31st, 2009 at 11:07 am
I really must STOP watching these scary films!!!
January 31st, 2009 at 11:56 am
The geologists say, it is not going to erupt.
Borrrrring!
February 1st, 2009 at 11:01 am
I think the possibility of yellowstone of eruption is small but still a possibility.It will eventually happen again but still it could happen in our lifetime. When it does erupt the eruption would make a global effect and the ash and the eruption would cause many people would die that is why geologists at yellowstone are predicting the chances of yellowstone erupting.
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:05 pm
IF Yellowstone erupts, the best place to be would be off the planet.
Barring major advancements in space travel, due to global wind patterns the best place to be would be in the Southern Hemispere. Australia’s your best bet.
February 2nd, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Thats crap……Im pretty sure that God would not let that happen maybe until after Christ returns. And how would scientists know that it would kill half the people in the world? The Flood killed all the earths population except for Noah and his family. Choose to believe it or not. Its the truth.
February 2nd, 2009 at 5:25 pm
But if it did erupt anytime soon…..I would only enjoy the cold for once.
February 3rd, 2009 at 8:10 pm
What does God have to do with it? If you believe a higher power created all living species then ask yourself why has god not stopped 99% of all species from becoming extinct? Earthquakes, volcano, and all other natural disasters are natural acts of nature and a living planet……not god. These events have been going on since the beginning of time and they will continue to happen till the end of time. And what ever living species inhabits this planet when they do occur, will be greatly effected in a negative of life threatening way. You ask how I know this? Just look at the geological record and it is all there. I prefer not to believe in beliefs that were born of superstition and fear thousands of years ago. Truth is what counts.
February 11th, 2009 at 5:15 am
yellowstone will BLOW a massive eurption will happen but one quistion remains that no one will answer is when it will eurpt it could be tommorow 1 years time or in 90,000 years sooo quit worring and live live as normal we will know when it will eurpt so stop worring and live life as normal
February 24th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
well, i don’t think its funny. its gonna happen someday. it could happen tomorrow all we could know.i heard that the day the world ends,all volcanoes are going to erupt,lots of tornadoes,earthquakes,hurricanes,tsunamis,etc.and the scary part is where are some of us going to go after everyone’s death?????what’s next????because scientist sure don’t know so thats not funny
February 24th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
if yellowstone erupts-we’re doomed!!!!!!so like everyone else i’m moving to austria to ride the kangaroos.
February 24th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
I think that yellow stone will erupt soon maybe not 2day or the nxt decade but it will happen. Ppl need to think of ways 2 recycle oxegen so we can use glass domes on other planets like mars or the big one jupiter. All we can do now is pray and try to make a commitment 2 the earth so recylce ppl.
March 16th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
All of you are retarded, except Vince, who has the only rational post on this site. Really everyone, calm down, if anything did happen in Yellowstone, it wouldn’t be a crazy world ending scenario like in Armageddon or Jaws, it would be just like Titanic the movie, except with hot ash and an extended ice age…
March 19th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
People are worrying about Yellowstone for no reason, the only reason it has been picked out from the 13 supervolcanos worldwide is because its in USA. What about Lake Toga? 60,000 years ago that erupted, wiping out humans to the last few thousand. Yellowstone is smaller than Lake Toga and we are more advanced now. Also Yellowstone will only affect USA directly from ash fall. Then the cooling effect will occur, Europe will be least affected by this, the UK being the least effected in Europe due to oceanic circulation providing the stable climate and not atmospheric. Also by the time this thing erupts im sure our world will be alot warmer than what it is now, so a cooling effect will be needed anyway :D.
Stop worrying about something that can be predicted months before the event will occur, also there are so many ways humans will face a disaster, Yellowstone being the least of them.
March 22nd, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Well. In 2008 my geography teacher said it could erupt sometime during my lifetime… well im 12… so i am really scared… and also, if yellowstone erupts… is it true, that the hole world will turn really cold like -30 degrees and you can here the bang from australlia?
Nicole
April 25th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
Is everybody serious? I would not worry about yellow stone erupting anytime soon. We all will be eatin by ZOMBIES before yellow stone erups.
May 3rd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
No one knows when the world will end… only God. That’s just it